Jason Zweig

"The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism (which makes stocks too expensive) and unjustified pessimism (which makes them too cheap). The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists."- Jason Zweig

April - May Activity

Welcome back. These last few weeks I have sold a covered call on CAT trying to protect against downside after I picked it up at around 81/share. Turns out all the estimates claiming losses into 2016 didn't matter, shares still gained. I made a minimal amount and left money on the table. Still I went with the lower risk and higher probability scenario. That was the correct risk exposure for me.
I was lucky on KRFT and GE. KRFT and Heinz merged to form a huge food staples conglomerate and my shares took off. GE is selling off their financial arm which was met with a $3/share boost. Just goes to show patience + owning solid companies with wide moats + luck = investing success.
Picked up some CELG on solid growth and buyout rumors.


We are entering May and the 'sell in May and go away' segment of the year, where money will be even more scared than usual. Lots of people with their finger on the sell button. I am thinking stop losses on stocks that are not major income producers.

March Activity

I have no transactions to report except for dividends hitting the account. In the month of February about $468 in dividends was reinvested.

Here is a great video from the Oracle of Omaha. He speaks about Ted Williams, the strike zone and investing. It is excellent.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5VQPIeZhMc

Back from long absence - Recent Activity

Hi again! Sorry for the disappearing act. It has been tough to get here and post due to life. I am finding that the closer I get to semi retirement the less time I have to sit and compose some investing thoughts. The funny part is investing gets more important as time goes on yet I pay less attention to it! That might be a good thing since that means less trading for me and like many, I tend to overtrade.

We are getting to the point where playing defense with our capital is paramount-for 2 reasons. First, the market is near an all time high and second, as I mentioned, semi retirement is just a few years off. Semi retirement for me means that I leave my current position which pays well but also has many serious obligations, and take up something either part time or something with many fewer responsibilities thus requiring less time on my part. This is BADLY needed-to deal with my and my Mother's dilapidated houses, to give more time to my aging parent, to deal with my kids and their needs and to get me back some sanity.

ANYWAY.....investing. Quite a ride these last 6 months. Several dips in the Fall 2014, still the Ukraine problem, Greece deciding they have had enough austerity and a huge oil beating. I was and am still overwweight energy and picked up more CVX at 104. I am still in the red on CVX but not COP or KMI. Picked up CAT on a put option at 83, immediately sold a 3-20 covered call at 85, we'll see if it goes but decent dividend. Been in and out of GILD, still hold 50 shares, they just initiated a 1.6% divy! AAPL still my best holding, up 60%. Picked up more GE recently. Each of these transactions could easily be an entire blog post in itself to explain the reasoning behind it. Finally thinking of putting stop losses on all holdings.


Thanks for stopping by. Happy 2015 and I wish you a great and prosperous year!

August Activity

Due to the catalysts at work now and in the near future, I have decided to lighten up the portfolio and go to cash with some holdings. The most obvious candidates to me were the lower yielding blue chips where I was at or near cost basis or in the red. I sold ED, MCD, KO and PG. I am interested in picking up PG and possibly KO again after the correction which I believe is coming, but at a lower cost basis. We have lots of macro events in the hopper, any one of which can escalate and trigger a pullback. Take your pick-Russia/Ukraine, Iraq air strikes, Fed easing ending in October, Israel and Hamas, mid term elections, Europe entering recession again etc.

I am 1/3 in cash. This is a good time for covered calls.

July addendum

Here is a link to an informative blog which you might enjoy;



http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-interesting-times/3076305-interesting-times-for-all-commodities-and-investments-chapter-73

Earnings week this week-about 1/3 of the S+P reports earnings. Between that and the turmoil with a passenger plane being shot down and mid east problems we could be in for a rough ride this week.

July Activity - Good Deals Scarce

Even after the feds announced plans to end bond purchases in October, the market still went higher. Personally I was hoping for a pullback so at least I could sell some puts. I did sell one on DE strike $85 a few weeks ago. But it is difficult to spot a good deal now. VLO recently took a big hit but refineries are unpredictable and risky. I plan to hold cash this summer and save each month for the inevitable pullback. I'll be looking for deep value and put selling on businesses I have been watching-OHI, HCP, ED, possibly PFE, TGT or WMT although retailers face stiff online headwinds.

Here is a quote from Tim (see sidebar) that sums it all up in a way anyone, myself included, can understand;

On a relative basis, I'd think about it this way. There are plenty of companies that you can identify as growing north of 10% over the medium term. The trickier part, particularly here in 2014, is finding a company trading at a discount to fair value so you can benefit from P/E expansion as well. 

Thanks for stopping by..